MSI

Woodland Hills: Expectations Out of Balance

Last time I analyzed the MLS data for the North West San Fernando Valley, I noted some encouraging trends: a 1% year-over-year increase in the median sold price, and the fact that the “for sale” prices were within approximately 10% of the “sold prices,” which is considered a healthy equilibrium between buyers and sellers. This basically means that sellers are being realistic, which permits transactions to take place. But, turning to the micro-climate of Woodland Hills, we can see a very different picture. On the chart below, it is apparent that while the “for sale” price hasn’t budged since last year, the median sold price has plunged 11%. In other words, buyers and sellers are getting increasingly out of sync. But, at the same time, inventory has plummeted from earlier this year. It will be interesting to see in the coming months whether the expectation gap causes inventory to increase. Stay tuned.

MSI

Signs of Bottoming In The San Fernando Valley?

DataQuick has reported that Southland home sales are up overall, and the same trend can be seen in the MLS data from the Northwest San Fernando Valley. Indeed sold prices have actually increased by 1% from a year ago. Also, since the gap between the “for sale” price and the “sold” price is now within 10%, which is considered to be a good sign for increasing sales, as the sellers’ expectations have gotten within striking distance of the buyer’s. This chart also appears to reflect some influence from the federal first time homebuyer tax credit and the pressure to close before it expired (although it has now been extended in a slightly different form).

Also check out the lower chart for a dramatic view of the shrinking inventory. This reflects the buyers’ frenzy that snapped up many of the better priced properties during the middle of the year (most of which were distressed.), For whatever reason, much of this inventory has not been replaced with new inventory. The moratorium on foreclosures may have had some impact on this number, as had the “shadow inventory” — properties that the banks have not foreclosed upon, for reasons of their own. Many are expecting more of these properties to be put on the market over the coming year.

MSI

Prices down 12% — But Inventory Plunges 75% in the Northwest San Fernando Valley!

Compared to a year ago, the median sold price for a single family residence located in the northwest San Fernando Valley has dropped 12% to $425,500. However, a few months ago the numbers were even uglier. Since April 2009, the price trend has started back up, possibly in part due to the influence of the first-time buyer $8,000.00 tax credit — which is set to expire in December, and investors snapping up distressed properties.

But, even more interestingly, we are now looking at only two months of inventory for single family houses! This figure shows that how little inventory there is to meet demand, potentially contributing to a surge in prices. Much of the current inventory is REO or short sales. However, the real inventory may be even higher: the published figures don’t take into consideration what is referred as “shadow inventory,” where banks are either delaying putting their inventory on the market, or are delaying foreclosure, meaning that some “zombie” properties are not being taken back . . . yet.

If you are interested in finding out how your particular area is doing, please email me and I will be happy to forward it to you.