homes

The “Wisdom” of Crowds

Want to know when to buy a home in the San Fernando Valley? The geniuses at Zillow propose a solution to your dilemma, by releasing their latest widget – promising a surefire way to pick the bottom of the market. No, Zillow does not have a crystal ball either, but the widget they have created just leaves it up to the “wisdom” of crowds, and lets everyone who visits vote for when the market will have reached bottom, like this (I ran this on 7/15/09 in the unlikely event that anyone is keeping track for posterity):

Get it? Since we are all clueless on timing the bottom of the market, let’s vote and perhaps our collective cluelessness will add up to some “wisdom” capable of predicting the future. (I don’t think so. Nothing could be sillier, except, perhaps, Zestimates™, but that’s the subject of a different post.)

While not entirely devoid of some scientific basis, using the “wisdom of crowds” to time the market will likely prove no more (or less) accurate than the old methods of reading tea leaves, breathing the fumes of a decomposing python, or paying attention to the predictions of the chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, for that matter. Why? Well, for one reason even if you played along and assumed the crowd was “wise” and the majority therefore “knew” how to pick the exact market bottom – - the widget is too general to be of much use. As we saw during the real estate crash, the declines in real estate markets were anything but uniform across different markets. (Some are still likely due for a big drop, while others are seemingly on their way back up, at least in some price ranges.) So even a perfectly prescient guess about a general “market bottom” would leave us clueless about the markets we care about. If crowds were so smart, how come we ended up with all the democratically elected politicians we’ve been saddled with over the years?

Want to know the exact market bottom for homes in the San Fernando Valley? I’ll let you know as soon as I’ve installed my new, patent pending, “tea leaves in the bottom of a cup” widget.

homes

Hipster Alert! Is Woodland Hills Destined to Become the Next Trendy Destination?

Ok, that might be a bit of an exaggeration. But there are big changes planned for the West Valley that may well affect the desirability (and price) of homes in Woodland Hills and surrounding areas. On the almost-empty (save for a new Crate & Barrel) parcel of land that separates the Westfield Promenade and Westfield Topanga, megadeveloper the Westfield Group is planning to construct what may become the “Third Street Promenade” of the West Valley. In fact, the planned development (called The Village at Westfield Topanga) will look so much like the Third Street Promenade in Santa Monica, that Westfield used a photo of the actual Third Street Promenade in its marketing efforts: check out the fourth slide on http://westfield.com/thevillage/

Westfield’s information about the Village on its site is a bit sparse – it does not seem to have been significantly updated since 2007 – but the developer claims to be “exploring” “community amenities” for the Village including a “senior/community center, museum component with interactive educational programs for children, water features . . . public art displays, such as sculpture gardens, gourmet grocery store, and open air plaza.”
What does the planned Village development mean for the West Valley? Perhaps, finally, some nightlife of the non-enclosed mall variety, some more restaurants and a place to hang out during the warm Valley nights. Time will tell whether the actual development will be a plastic-y replicant of actual life (like the taste-challenged Universal Citywalk), or something with some character. Given the current state of the economy it may be some time before the Village is anything besides a dream on a piece of paper. But, if the Village development takes place as planned and it is well executed, it will add a sorely needed amenity to Woodland hills, and may well have a positive impact on the market value of surrounding areas.

homes

Number of Woodland Hills Homes In Escrow up 55% over last year

It appears that home buyers have finally been coming out of the woodwork lately. Looking only at single family detached homes in Woodland Hills, the number of properties going into escrow has been leaping recently. The latest figures from SROAR comparing May 08 to May 09, show an increase of 55% of such homes going into escrow. I would not be surprised to see this trend continue, at least if the interest rates stay relatively low (and they still are, even after the latest uptick).

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